Casey's General Stores (Casey's General Stores) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $167.50 (As of May. 14, 2024)

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What is Casey's General Stores Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-14), Casey's General Stores's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $167.50.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Casey's General Stores's Predictability Rank is 2.5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Casey's General Stores is -101.65%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Casey's General Stores's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CASY' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.47 Med: 0.93 Max: 2.03
Current: 2.02

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Casey's General Stores was 2.03. The lowest was 0.47. And the median was 0.93.

CASY's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
87.8% of 123 companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.8 vs CASY: 2.02

Casey's General Stores Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Casey's General Stores's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Casey's General Stores Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Casey's General Stores Annual Data

Trend

Apr14

Apr15

Apr16

Apr17

Apr18

Apr19

Apr20

Apr21

Apr22

Apr23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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121.97

170.64

157.98

146.58

172.59

Casey's General Stores Quarterly Data
	Apr19	Jul19	Oct19	Jan20	Apr20	Jul20	Oct20	Jan21	Apr21	Jul21	Oct21	Jan22	Apr22	Jul22	Oct22	Jan23	Apr23	Jul23	Oct23	Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															177.73	172.59	178.81	172.02	182.14

Competitive Comparison of Casey's General Stores's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Casey's General Stores's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Casey's General Stores's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Casey's General Stores's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Casey's General Stores's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Casey's General Stores Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.44%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Casey's General Stores's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 8.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $11.322.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Casey's General Stores's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.088)/(1+0.11) = 0.98018018018018
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

11.322

14.7938

167.50

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(167.5	-	337.76)	/	167.5
	=	-101.65 %

Casey's General Stores (NAS:CASY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Casey's General Stores Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Casey's General Stores's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Casey's General Stores (Casey's General Stores) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Casey's General Stores Inc (NAS:CASY) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CS2:Germany CS2:Germany

Address

One Se Convenience Boulevard, Ankeny, IA, USA, 50021

Website

https://www.caseys.com

Casey's General Stores Inc owns and operates over 2,500 convenience stores in multiple Midwestern states of the U.S. The stores provide self-service gasoline, grocery items, and processed foods such as pizza, donuts, and sandwiches. Casey's operates its own distribution centres, delivering its in-store products and fuel supplies. The company owns of its real estate, including nearly all of the stores, distribution centres, and some of its subsidiaries' facilities. More than half of the company's stores are located in areas with populations of fewer than 5,000 people.

Executives

Mike Spanos	director	PEPSICO, INC., 700 ANDERSON HILL ROAD, PURCHASE NY 10577
Brennan Thomas P Jr	officer: SVP, Chief Merch. Officer	ONE SE CONVENIENCE BOULEVARD, ANKENY IA 50021
Sri Donthi	director	5008 AIRPORT ROAD NW, ROANOKE VA 24021
Katrina S Lindsey	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.	ONE SE CONVENIENCE BLVD., ANKENY IA 50021
Larree M Renda	director
Greg Trojan	director	ONE ICON, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Julia L Jackowski	officer: SVP, Corp Gen Counsel & HR	CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC., ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD., PO BOX 3001, ANKENY IA 50021
Diane C Bridgewater	director	8161 HEATHER BOW, JOHNSTON IA 50131
Brian Joseph Johnson	officer: SVP, Store Development	CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC., ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD., ANKENY IA 50021
Williams Ena Koschel	officer: Chief Operating Officer	15455 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 550, ADDISON TX 75001
Bramlage Stephen P Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ARAMARK, 1101 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19107
Adrian M Butler	officer: Chief Information Officer	111 NORTH CANAL STREET, SUITE 850, CHICAGO IL 60606
William J Walljasper	officer: Senior VP and CFO	ONE CONVENIENCE BLVD, PO BOX 3001, ANKENY IA 50021
Chad Michael Frazell	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY, 5401 VIRGINIA WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Allison M. Wing	director	1909 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403